At OpenHouse.ai, we often hear homebuilders say, “We’ve got a good handle on forecasting.” But is forecasting really enough to keep pace in today’s fast-moving market? Here’s where the difference between forecasting and predicting becomes key. Forecasting tells you what could happen based on past trends—it’s an educated guess. Predicting, on the other hand, shows you what will happen using real-time data and AI-driven insights.
Read on to understand why this difference, and our cutting-edge product OpenPredict, could be a game-changer for your business.
What Is Forecasting?
Every homebuilder we meet is already forecasting. They forecast headcount, operational capacity, and sales for the year ahead. It essentially reflects what they believe is possible based on the previous year’s performance.
When we introduce our AI-driven prediction technology and how it helps homebuilders today, many homebuilders will tell us they are already forecasting (not predicting): “We’re pretty good at forecasting—we usually come close to what we end up selling.”
And while that might be true, the difference between what we do and what builders call forecasting is key.
The Core Difference: Forecasting vs. Predicting
Forecasting is essentially guessing—estimating how many homes you’ll sell and, from there, estimating how much operational capacity you’ll need. Prediction, on the other hand, is more grounded. It tells you how many homes you will sell based on your current operational efforts. It’s not just an educated guess—it’s a data-driven certainty.
After reviewing some of our client conversations, I’ve realized that when homebuilders say they forecast, they are really telling us that they’re:
- Organized
- Deliberate, not impulsive
- Deeply knowledgeable about their business
- Working with a structured plan
At OpenHouse.ai, we appreciate builders who forecast intelligently because it means they care about data and performance. They understand the importance of historical variances and how that impacts the year ahead.
But here’s the thing: Forecasting is a combination of setting targets and managing capacity. Prediction, however, is about accurately knowing how many homes you’ll sell by a certain date under the current operational and market conditions.
What Does This Look Like in Practice?
- We can predict the percentage change in your website traffic following an interest rate announcement, and when that traffic will actually show up on your site. Builders could use this prediction to adjust their Online Sales Counselors hours for better customer engagement.
- We can also predict whether it’s more effective to offer a cash incentive or spend money driving traffic to the show home—helping improve your ROI per home sold.
Why OpenPredict Is Different from Forecasting
At OpenHouse, our product OpenPredict takes the guesswork out of forecasting. Instead of estimating based on past performance, we use AI to analyze hundreds of data points in real-time, giving you actionable insights into your future sales.
While forecasting helps you manage your targets, OpenPredict helps you hit them with precision. It’s not just about planning for the future—it’s about shaping it with certainty.
